International Consultant to support the fertility aspirations survey in Turkmenistan

Demographic trends across Central Asia vary, with the region generally experiencing high fertility rates, rapid population growth, and large youth populations. However, in contrast to much of the rest of the northern hemisphere, Central Asia continues to experience higher fertility and birth rates and population growth, so that its countries have large numbers of young people. The UN DESA data shows that Central Asia's population nearly quintupled from 17.5 million in 1950 to 80.8 million in 2023. For Turkmenistan specifically, while the population has been around seven million, recent years have shown a slowing rate of population growth influenced by birth and death rates. The total fertility rate in Turkmenistan has declined from 3.2 to 2.6 over the past decade and continues to decline. The Government of Turkmenistan is actively strengthening its collaboration with UNFPA to enhance demographic resilience, focusing on the demographic dividend and human capital investments for sustainable socio-economic development. This is timely, given the 2022 Census data insights into Turkmenistan's demographic landscape. UNFPA's work in Turkmenistan will prioritize strengthening data systems and evidence-based approaches to factor in population changes and other megatrends, such as climate change, to inform the development and implementation of national policies, programmes, and financing related to demographic resilience, gender equality, and family planning.

Turkmenistan, with a population of more than seven million, has experienced a slowing rate of population growth in recent years, shaped by the interplay of birth and death rates. The population is nearly evenly divided between males and females. According to the Turkmenistan Census 2022, the age distribution shows that 57% of the population is of working age, while 8.1% is older, and 34.9% is younger than working age. The median age is approximately 30 years and dependency ratio of 39.7 percent. While UN data  indicates an average annual increase of around 1.3% from 2010 until 2015 , more recent data of 2023 suggests an annual population growth rate around 1.8%, with a crude birth rate of 22 and a crude death rate of 6 per 1,000 persons in 2023. Life expectancy at birth in Turkmenistan is 70 years.  This trend is projected to continue, with the medium variant suggesting a period of slower growth followed by a slight decline, potentially leading to a population size of around 9 million by 2050 .

According to population projections over the next 25 years, and taking into account the declining fertility rates, the working-age population in Turkmenistan is projected to increase by nearly 1 million people, reaching over 5.2 million by 2050. Meanwhile, the share of the population under 15 is expected to decline slightly as a proportion of the total, reflecting falling fertility rates. The population aged 65 and over is projected to more than double, rising from about 8% today to around 15% by 2050.

Understanding fertility aspirations – the desires and intentions regarding family size and timing of births – is crucial for effective national development planning, particularly in the areas of health, education, social welfare, and economic development. A Fertility Aspirations Survey (FAS) provides valuable insights into the underlying factors influencing fertility rates, including socio-economic conditions, access to reproductive health services, gender dynamics, and cultural norms. Such data is essential for informed policy planning to underpin investments in education, healthcare, social protection, employment, empowerment, and infrastructure, laying the foundation for more sustainable, resilient, and equitable development.

The purpose of this consultancy is to provide high-level technical expertise and practical guidance to the Government of Turkmenistan and relevant national partners in the design, implementation, analysis, and interpretation of a comprehensive FAS. The insights derived from this survey will inform evidence-based policy formulation and programming, contributing to improved reproductive health outcomes and sustainable development in Turkmenistan, especially as the country faces a projected increase in its working-age population. This survey will serve as data for the development of the national demographic resilience strategy.

The International Consultant will be responsible for providing comprehensive technical support throughout the entire lifecycle of the FAS, from conceptualization to data reporting. This will include the following key stages:

Stage 1: Inception and Methodology development - 6 days

• Desk review of existing data and literature, including the 2022 Census data for Turkmenistan and other relevant documentation.
• Develop a robust and contextually appropriate methodology for conducting the FAS in Turkmenistan, drawing on international best practices and adapting to local specificities. This includes defining survey objectives, identifying target population, sampling strategy (including sample size calculation), questionnaire design incorporating fertility ideals concepts, as well as data collection methods (e.g., household interviews, focus group discussions), and ethical considerations.
• Design survey questions for measuring fertility aspirations and related determinants, considering the regional context where high birth rates are coupled with present challenges on family planning, women's professional development and labor market participation.
• Develop a detailed survey protocol, including data management and quality assurance procedures.
• The methodology should align with the need for accurate population forecasting, which is needed to enable the government to anticipate and prepare for future demands in education, healthcare, social protection, employment, empowerment, and infrastructure.

Stage 2: Capacity building of national partners and provision of practical guidance on survey implementation - 8 days

• Design and preparation of comprehensive capacity-building workshop materials, and delivery of comprehensive capacity-building workshops and training sessions for national partners (e.g., Ministry of Health and Medical Industry, National Institute of Statistics, academia, civil society organizations) that potentially will be involved in the survey.
• Deliver on site 3 day training which will include:
• practical implications, importance and advantages of conducting FAS for informing the evidence-based policy formulation and programming.
• survey methodology, data collection techniques, interviewer skills, data quality assurance, and basic data entry/management.
• practical guidance and technical support on all aspects of survey implementation, including interviewer identification, training, fieldwork organization, data collection, and supervision.
• Provide ongoing mentoring and technical assistance to the survey team throughout the fieldwork period, with a focus on strengthening data systems and cross-border interoperability for enhanced availability of quality, comparable, disaggregated data. This will also include assisting in the adaptation and pre-testing of survey instruments (questionnaires, interview guides) to ensure cultural sensitivity and linguistic accuracy.
• Develop a detailed work plan and timeline for the survey implementation phase.

Stage 3: Survey Implementation Support and Monitoring - 4 days

• Provision of ongoing technical support and practical guidance to the national survey team during fieldwork.
• Monitoring data collection processes and quality assurance activities.
• Preparation of fieldwork monitoring reports.

Stage 4: Data Analysis and Policy Recommendations - 4 days

• Conduct in-depth analysis of the collected survey data, utilizing appropriate statistical instruments/tools. The analysis will consider metrics such as Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and tempo-adjusted TFR (where applicable), and the concept of fertility gap (difference between hypothetical and actual fertility).
• Prepare comprehensive analytical reports summarizing key findings, highlighting significant insights and policy implications.
• Develop evidence-based recommendations and/or policy briefs for future programming related to reproductive health, family planning, population development, and other relevant sectors, based on the survey findings. These recommendations should be actionable and tailored to the Turkmen context.
• Develop the final FAS report.
• Presentation of key findings and recommendations to national stakeholders and decision-makers.

The international specialist will also advise on the UNFPA role and contribution in communication with key partners and national authorities, if necessary.

The duration of this consultancy is 22 working days from August ….., 2025 till December 3, 2025.

Operational closure of the contract is December 10th, 2025.

Deliverable 1. Inception report with the proposed work plan, main pillars by September 10.

Deliverable 2. Developed survey methodology and protocol, including detailed sampling strategy, questionnaire, data collection tools, and data quality assurance plan by September 20.

Deliverable 3. Conducted capacity building activities with key partners by September 25.

Deliverable 4. Fieldwork monitoring reports during survey fieldwork by November 10.

Deliverable 5. Draft analytical report outlining key findings and initial interpretations by November 25.

Deliverable 6. Final comprehensive analytical report based on the fertility aspirations survey data, including key findings, conclusions, and actionable recommendations, as well as policy briefs/recommendations for future programming by December 3.

Deliverable 7. Presentation of key findings to national stakeholders and decision-makers (potentially during in-country missions) and final consultancy report by December 3.

The UNFPA Turkmenistan Head of Office and Programme Coordination Associate will monitor the International Consultant’s work through reviewing submitted materials. The consultant will weekly provide an update on progress by email or ad-hoc, on challenges encountered and support needed. 

Ethical Considerations

UNFPA requires its consultants to adhere to ethical principles and standards when doing research. The selected consultant should clearly identify any potential ethical issues and approaches, as well as the processes for ethical review in the inception report.

National Ownership

The involvement of appropriate national partners will be a critical condition for the development of all the mission outcome materials in ensuring stakeholder ownership and its subsequent utilisation.

• Advanced university degree (Master's or PhD) in Demography, Population Studies, Public Health, Statistics, Sociology, or a related social science field with a strong focus on quantitative research methods.
• Minimum of 7 years of extensive experience in designing, managing, implementing, and analyzing large-scale population-based surveys, preferably in the areas of reproductive health, family planning, or demographic health surveys.
• Demonstrated experience in developing survey methodologies, sampling frameworks, and questionnaires.
• Proven experience in providing technical assistance and capacity building to national institutions, particularly in developing country contexts.
• Experience in conducting quantitative and qualitative data analysis and interpreting complex survey results.
• Experience working in Central Asia or similar cultural contexts is an asset
• Experience working with Government organisations and/or international organizations 
• Skills in stakeholder coordination, including communication and training skills.
• Familiarity with fertility aspirations concepts and research is highly desirable.
• Fluency in oral and written English. Knowledge of Russian is an advantage.

The consultancy fee will be calculated based on the P-4 level of the of the UN Salary Scale for Professional and higher categories effective 1 January 2025 and will be paid in a lump sum upon successful completion of deliverables.